Journal article

Statistical Model Of Seasonal Forecasting The Completed Suicides Number In The Regions Of Ukraine

Year:

2023

Published in:

Медичні перспективи
self-injurious behavior
suicide
completed/prevention & control
suicide
completed/statistics & numerical data
seasonality
mortality
predictive mode

Suicide prevention efforts require conscious coordination and close collaboration between health agencies. They should be based on an understanding of the true picture of the prevalence of this phenomenon in a particular area, the characteristics of the dynamics of changes in the frequency of suicides, and high-risk factors, namely age, gender, climatic and social components. The purpose of this study was an attempt to create for each region of Ukraine a statistical model of the dynamics of the frequency of completed suicides depending on the time component (months of the year) and to build on its basis a forecast of the dynamics of the indicator of the number of deaths due to intentional self-harm. For this, the autocorrelation of absolute indicators was carried out and correlograms of time series of indicators of the deaths' number due to intentional self-harm were constructed. The obtained correlograms had sufficiently pronounced features, which made it possible to structure them into 4 separate groups. For further analysis, we used the time series of the areas that made up the first two groups, characterized by a trend and seasonality. For further analysis, only models of exponential smoothing of the time series of areas were used, whose indicators of Ljung-Box Q-statistics, coefficient of determination, mean modulus of error, and smoothing of the mean were in an acceptable range. Based on the created time series model, it is possible to assume that the period from August 2021 to September 2022, will increase in the absolute indicator of the number of deaths due to intentional self-harm in the spring months and, for most regions, in January. For the autumn period, on the contrary, a decrease in the number of completed suicides is characteristic. the characteristics of the time series models for a whole group of regions did not allow us to use them to build a forecast. These regions are represented by two different geographical groups – a group of regions of Western Ukraine and three Black Sea regions. Created for each region of Ukraine, a statistical model of the frequency dynamics of the completed suicides depending on the time component (months of the year) made it possible to build an annual forecast for the number of deaths dynamics due to intentional self-harm.

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2014
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Influence Of Psychosocial Factors On Mental Health: Theresults Of Questioning Persons, Suffered Inzone Ofantiterrorist Operation In Ukraine, Internally Displaced Persons And Employees Involved In Providing Assistance

Publisher: Journal of Health Sciences

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Iryna Pinchuk, Natalia Stepanova, H Sulimovska, Walery Zukow

2015
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Suicidal Activity in Ukraine

Publisher: European Psychiatry

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Olena Khaustova, Iryna Pinchuk, Oleh Romaniv

2021
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Converging Impact of the Ongoing Conflict and COVID‑19 Pandemic on Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders in Ukraine

Publisher: Journal of Emergency Management

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii

2022
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Applying The National Mental Health Policy In Conflict‑Affected Regions: Towards Better Social Inclusion (Ukrainian Case)

Publisher: Mental Health and Social Inclusion

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Eleanor Quirke, Vitalii Klymchuk, Nataliia Gusak, Viktoriia Gorbunova

2022
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Сезонність Та Суїцид: Роль Регіональних особливостей Динаміки Суїцидів В Україні у 2005‑2021 Роках У Розробці Статистичної моделі Їх Прогнозування

Publisher: Психосоматична медицина та загальна практика

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Olena Khaustova, Vitalii Omelianovych

2022
Report

The Cost of Mental Health in Ukraine : The Review of Privately and Publicly Procured Medicines and Dietary Supplements (2015‑2019)

Publisher: World Bank Group

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Olena Doroshenko, Vrishali Shekhar

2020
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Transitioning To Community‑Based Mental Health Service Delivery: Opportunities For Ukraine

Publisher: Journal of Market Access & Health Policy

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Eleanor Quirke, Orest Suvalo, York Zöllner

2014
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Analysis Of Survey Volunteers For The Provision Of Psychological First Aid To Internally Displaced Persons And The Public, Which Is In A Conflict Zone

Publisher: Health Sciences

Authors: Oleksii Sukhovii, Iryna Pinchuk, Natalia Stepanova, Walery Zukow, Olena Ivanova, H Sulimovska

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