Prevalence and Prices of Tobacco and Nicotine Products in Ukraine Based on Individual Survey Data

This policy note analyzes smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption patterns in Ukraine between 2018 and 2025, based on individual data from a nationally representative Omnibus survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The study examines the effects of tax reforms (particularly since 2021) and the shock of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 on smoking dynamics, disaggregated by gender, age, region, education, income, and occupation. Results show that after a decade-long decline in smoking prevalence (from about 25–28% in 2010 to 20% in 2017), the war triggered a temporary surge to 32% in May 2022, followed by a gradual decrease to 27% by late 2024 and a renewed increase to 31% in early 2025. Men continue to smoke two to three times more often than women, yet female daily smoking rates — especially in frontline regions — have increased. Younger adults are shifting toward alternative products such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco (HTPs), which together account for 15–20% of users. Daily smoking is most common among military personnel, manual workers, and the self-employed, while respondents with higher education tend to use cheaper substitutes, including roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco. Price analysis reveals strong socioeconomic differentiation: higher-income and urban consumers pay more for premium cigarettes and HTPs, while lower-income groups rely on inexpensive RYO products. Half of smokers reported they would quit or reduce consumption if tobacco prices doubled or their income fell by half — indicating substantial price sensitivity and the effectiveness of fiscal measures. The findings highlight the need to integrate taxation and affordability policies with targeted wartime health interventions, improved monitoring of novel nicotine products, and stronger enforcement against illicit trade