Understanding the Ukrainian Paradox: Recipes for High and Low Institutional Trust Amid the Military Conflict

Conflicts generate profound shocks that destabilize political systems and erode the legitimacy of governing regimes. In the context of Ukraine, these adverse effects have taken on a distinct form, referred to here as the "Ukrainian Paradox." The phenomenon describes the coexistence of a strong belief in the democratic regime with a significant distrust in the political institutions that uphold it. This study seeks to explain the Ukrainian Paradox by examining the processes of institutional trust formation. The analysis is based on data from a nationally representative survey conducted in November 2024, utilizing fsQCA as the primary methodological framework. The findings reveal that individuals tend to base their trust in political institutions on pragmatic evaluations of institutional performance, largely disregarding ideological commitments to democracy or optimism about Ukraine’s long-term statehood in these assessments. As a result, Ukrainians' aspirations for and commitment to democratic governance persist independently of their trust in democratic institutions.