European Union Enlargement And Geopolitical Power In The Face Of War

When faced with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Ukraine’s steadfast resistance, the European Union (EU) reacted with remarkable speed and innovation. In a few short months, it offered novel forms of financial and military support to Ukraine, along with the revival of EU enlargement and the recognition of Ukraine as a credible future EU candidate.1 Two years later, in June 2024, the EU opened membership negotiations with Ukraine. This marked a tremendous change of fortune for Ukraine’s long, deeply held and hard-fought aspirations to join the EU. But this change came at the price of a brutal, devastating, full-scale war with Russia. Still, for Ukrainians, whilst US and European military and financial assistance are both essential for prosecuting the war, it is the EU that symbolizes, even embodies, the values and goals that they are fighting for (Hrushetskyi, 2023; Onuch, 2024; Popova and Shevel, 2023; Reznik, 2022).2 In responding to the war, the EU has shown both its promise as a geopolitical actor and its severe limitations. It has set the stage for the revival of EU enlargement as an important pillar of its ability to promote EU values, project geopolitical power and build its economic wealth (Michel, 2024; Vachudova, 2005). We argue that linking Ukraine’s enlargement prospects, its ability to fight off the Russian invasion and the EU’s future as a geopolitical actor has opened a new chapter in European integration. However, after impressive co-operation in 2022, EU leaders pulled back in 2023 and have been unable to meet the demands of the war by increasing defence capacities and reforming decision-making in the areas of enlargement and security (Börzel, 2023; Raik et al., 2023)