A Comparative Analysis of Worries About a War in the Context of Ukraine-Russia Relations

This study examines the formation and a consequent mutation of Ukraine-Russia relations from a so-called brotherhood to the status of an open war. Drawn upon the World Values Survey (WVS) data, I juxtapose their populations’ expectations of a war with another country or a civil war. I argue that Ukraine and Russia show significant differences in the key factors defining their people’s worries about a war, and that these differences have increased considerably with the beginning of the military conflict in the East of Ukraine. My analysis demonstrates that the current worries among the Ukrainians largely relate to a war with another country and are closely linked to the issue of building national identity and liberal democracy in Ukraine. In the case of Russia, it is the concern about freedom and security, along with income satisfaction, that strongly predict the expectations of both war types among the local population.