Choosing A Taylor Rule With Limited Data Availability: The Benchmark Approach
Year:
2022Published in:
Visnyk of the National Bank of UkraineIn this paper, we propose and test a new methodology that aims to select the best performing monetary policy rule when macroeconomic data are very limited, as is often the case for developing countries. The methodology is based on calculating economic losses during the periods when a country implicitly followed an assumed rule and when its central bank exercised discretion. For countries with short data spans where such analysis is not possible, we propose adopting the rules that historically worked well for their peers. As an intermediate step, we develop a novel approach to the calculation of the equilibrium real interest rate for developing countries that accounts for their substantial risk premia and the expected real appreciation of the domestic currency. The methodology is then applied to Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine to construct the optimal policy rate path and contrast it with the actual one.
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The Identification Of The Sources Of Current Account Fluctuations In Ukraine
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Authors: Sergiy Nikolaychuk
The Effectiveness Of The Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Ukraine Since The Transition To Inflation Targeting
Publisher: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine
Authors: Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Oleksandr Zholud
Визначення Факторів Динаміки Поточного Рахунку Платіжного Балансу В Україні
Publisher: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine
Authors: Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Nadiia Shapovalenko
Платіжний Баланс України В Умовах Глобальної Фінансово‑Економічної Кризи
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The Current Accounts Deficit Of The Balance Of Payments: Assessment Of The Acceptable Level For Ukraine
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Authors: Sergiy Nikolaychuk
A Neutral Real Interest Rate In The Case Of A Small Open Economy: Application To Ukraine
Publisher: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine
Authors: Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Anton Grui, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi
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