Journal article

Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine Increased The Synchronisation Of Global Commodity Prices

Year:

2022

Published in:

Agricultural and Resource Economics
commodity price indices
covariate market shock
food marketvulnerability
food system resilience
price comovement
supply chaindisruption
war

The Russian Federation’s efforts to expand its regional political influence culminated in launching a full-scale war of aggression on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. As both countries are large exporters of commodities crucial for global food and energy security, the resulting abrupt supply chains disruptions created substantial uncertainty in commodity markets worldwide. This study quantifies to what extent this major shock induced global commodity prices to move more synchronously by gauging their time-varying comovement. Using the concordance index, it analyses the development of 15 key global commodity price indices from January 2010 to July 2022. We find that the supply chains disruptions increased synchronisation of grain, energy and fertiliser prices at the global level in direction and magnitude. Moreover, they resulted in contagion across numerous food and non-food markets, creating a global covariate shock to food and energy security. Notably, the increased synchronisation at broad scale restricts the ability of consumers to mitigate the adverse effects of food and energy price inflation by resorting to inexpensive alternatives. Hence, policymakers must improve the resilience of global food supply chains sustainably such that adverse effects of attaining the Sustainable Development Goals in crises can be minimised.

Other publications by

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Publisher: University of Massachusetts

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Pavlo Martyshev, Anna Nagurney, Dana Hassani

2024
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Assessing The Environmental Performance Of Agricultural Production Using A Parametric Approach: An Application For Crop Producers In Ukraine

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2024
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Assessing the Environmental Performance of Agricultural Production Using a Parametric Approach: An Application for Crop Producers in Ukraine

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Authors: Olha Halytsia, Maria Vrachiolia, Oleg Nivievskyi, Johannes Sauer

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Decentralisation And Territorial Amalgamations: The Effect On Public Expenditures And Incomes In Ukraine

Publisher: SSRN

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2024
Conference proceedings

Agricultural And Economywide Effects Of The War In Ukraine

Publisher: International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Valentyn Litvinov, Amanda M. Countryman, Ivan Kolodiazhnyi, Mariia Bogonos

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Eu Integration Of Ukraine – Assessing The Challenges For Agri‑Food Public Authorities

Publisher: SSRN

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi

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An Interim Assessment of the War‑Induced Damages and Losses in Ukraine's Agriculture

Publisher: Ukrainian Analytical Digest

Authors: Oleg Nivievskyi, Roman Neyter