Predicting Budget Robustness Of Ukrainian Local Self-Government During Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Russia’s war against Ukraine constitutes a severe multi-aspect challenge for Ukraine’s economy. Existing studies stress the positive role the 2014 decentralisation reform in Ukraine has had in combating war-related shocks. The paper contributes to this literature by exploring the factors behind the budget robustness (an ability to return to the pre-war levels of revenues) of Ukraine’s “hromadas” (self-governed municipalities). Our analysis shows that budget robustness positively correlates with some war-related factors (lesser exposure to fighting and occupation), administrative and demographic ones (population size) and social ones (higher voter turnout, higher numbers of cooperation agreements between hromadas).