Impact of the Grain Deal on Domestic Grain Prices

This thesis investigates the impact of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine on global commodity markets, with a specific focus on the domestic wheat and corn prices following the introduction of the Grain Deal Initiative. As a significant player in global agricultural trade, the disruption caused by the invasion to Ukraine's key agricultural trade ports had immediate repercussions on the global commodity markets. The Grain Deal Initiative was introduced as a potential mitigating measure, and this thesis uses regression analysis to evaluate its effectiveness in offsetting the initial drop in wheat and corn Ukrainian prices due to the war. The findings suggest that while the initiative has partially offset the price drop for wheat, it has not had a significant impact on corn prices. This thesis contributes to the ongoing discourse surrounding the Russian invasion's impact on agricultural markets and food security, providing insights for policymakers and stakeholders engaged in addressing this food supply disruption crisis.